In Russia there are all four working car plants. Stocks of cars will be enough for 2-5 months

Because of the situation in Ukraine, the apparent lack of components, and the breakdown of logistics chains, most Russian car plants are currently idle.

Only four plants are working: Ulyanovsk Automobile Plant, Haval Motor Rus, Mazda Sollers, and Avtotor, where production of Kia and Hyundai models continues, while the BMW assembly line is suspended.

At the same time, UAZ has already announced that it will go on vacation in the first half of May, as a result of which the assembly line will be stopped for two weeks, taking into account the state holidays in May. On the other hand, since April 24 Avtovaz should restart the production at the Togliatti and Izhevsk production sites which will start working a 4-day workweek for three months from June 6, 2022. There is still no information about the prospects for the resumption of work at other car plants in Russia.

Top-end cars are in the greatest shortage today. Brands that have not announced their decision to suspend are continuing to supply, they are extremely limited.

According to our forecasts, the stock will be sufficient for a period of 2 to 5 months, depending on the make and model. At the end of February and beginning of March, buyers showed a rush of interest, now the demand has stabilized and is at a moderate level. In the coming months, the deficit due to the stoppage of shipments will only get worse, and the fall in sales will continue. Everything depends on the manufacturers’ decision to resume shipments and the adjustment of logistic chains. The timing of normalization of the situation is absolutely unclear, the market will take a long time to recover.

Alexei Starikov, deputy general director of new car sales at Avilon AG

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